quote

It is a wise man who plants a tree in the shade of which he knows he will never sit. -- Greek proverb --

Judge each day not by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant. -- Robert Louis Stevenson --

From On High - Coming to you from a secured redoubt on Big Walker Mountain in the heart of Virginia's Blue Ridge.

Monday, November 01, 2010

My Prediction

No, I have no idea who is going to win the race here in the 9th Congressional District.  I'm not privy to that kind of polling data on a daily basis and the race is too tight to even venture a guess.  But I will predict this:

If the weather is nice, Rick Boucher wins.  If it's raining Morgan Griffith rides to victory.

It's as simple as that.

Why?

Because, based on all recent polling, the elderly remain steadfast in their support of the Democrat.  And the elderly always turn out in (relatively) high numbers in mid-term elections.  Unless the weather is bad and they (well, some of them) are unwilling to risk their health.

A Fact: Old people vote.

And the younger citizens among us?  Those who break heavily in Morgan Griffith's favor?

Not nearly as likely.

So pray for bad weather.

- - -

What does Weather.com predict tomorrow to look like?

Sunny.  High of 59°.

Uh oh.  Better get on the phone and call your neighbors.  Tell them to get off their dead asses in the morning and go down and stand in line behind granny.  'Cause you know she's going to be there.

3 comments:

Salt Lick said...

What happens when you eat your seed corn? Same thing that happens when your government puts your country into job-crushing debt.

Either we get our fiscal house in order, or we deal with disaster.

rbrandt said...

Here is a guess - Griffith 53%, Boucher 45%. The undecideds break for Griffith, the Heaton vote drops to less than 2%. A few more republicans come home and the voter turnout model for the last Survey USA poll underestimates republican turnout.

Jerry Fuhrman said...

Perhaps.