The polling gap between him and Rick Boucher continues to frustrate. The latest from Survey USA (the survey being conducted between the 11th and the 13th):
In VA-09, Democrat Boucher Remains Well Positioned for 15th Term in US House: In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia's 9th Congressional District today, 10/14/10, incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher defeats Republican State House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, 51% to 41%, according to a WDBJ-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 1 in 5 Republicans cross-over to vote Democrat. Independents break for the Democrat, one of the few places in 2010 where this is the case.Included with the summary (above) is some rather interesting detail. A few things to ponder:
1) The gender gap remains. In the latest survey Boucher leads Griffith by 13 points (53-40) among women.
Perhaps someone can explain that. I can't.
2) The most startling set of statistics to come out of this poll shows the degree to which Boucher's support strengthens as the age of the surveyee lengthens. Or, to put it another way, the younger the voter, the more apt that voter is to want change in congressional representation. Griffith leads Boucher strongly among young voters (52% to 42%) but, as those polled get older, there is a pronounced swing to the Democrat. Among the elderly (over 65), Boucher enjoys his strongest support - 56% to 37%.
Boucher's most solid voting block? Old women.
You might think that that trend bodes well for any future challenger to Boucher (should he win in November) as the elderly here in Southwest Virginia die off and his strongest voting base loses strength. The problem is, though, as demographic data continue to reveal, because of the lack of career opportunity here in the 9th District, young people - the best and the brightest of them anyway - are moving out to find gainful employment elsewhere. So the elderly will die and the young will migrate. Where do those two factors take us? My educated guess is that, with all things remaining the same, we'll probably have more of the same. Young people vote their frustrations and pack their bags, never to return, leaving those on fixed incomes to plod along with the status quo being their future. And then they die.
A bleak assessment. But welcome to the "Fightin' 9th," 2010.
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Another tidbit to ponder: According to the survey, of those polled, 62% said they were pro-life and 35% said they were pro-abortion. Nearly two to one. Yet Rick Boucher, up by ten points, is as radically pro-abortion as any Democrat in Washington.
Figure that one out. Get back to me.